| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 31 2025 | L | Miami | 24-27 | 1962.7 | -71.9 | 1890.8 | 88.3% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | L | Texas A&M | 40-41 | 1890.8 | -72.7 | 1818.1 | 81.1% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | Purdue | 56-30 | 1818.1 | +3.6 | 1821.7 | 94.3% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | W | Arkansas | 56-13 | 1821.7 | +22.0 | 1843.7 | 79.7% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | W | Boise State | 28-7 | 1843.7 | +19.9 | 1863.6 | 70.5% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | W | NC State | 36-7 | 1863.6 | +6.5 | 1870.1 | 89.8% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | W | USC | 34-24 | 1870.1 | +23.2 | 1893.3 | 65.9% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | W | Boston College | 25-10 | 1893.3 | +3.7 | 1897.0 | 96.9% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | W | Navy | 49-10 | 1897.0 | +10.3 | 1907.3 | 84.1% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | W | Pittsburgh | 37-15 | 1907.3 | +17.3 | 1924.6 | 84.3% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | W | Syracuse | 70-7 | 1924.6 | +4.0 | 1928.6 | 93.8% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | W | Stanford | 49-20 | 1928.6 | +4.9 | 1933.5 | 95.7% |